[SOLVED] ETW3420 Principles of Forecasting and Applications

ETW3420 Principles of Forecasting and Applications

Principles of Forecasting and Applications

Copyright By Assignmentchef assignmentchef

Topic 5 Post-Tutorial Activity

Instructions

Perform and complete the following tasks before answering the Quiz questions on

In this activity, you will examine Malaysias number of newly registered motorcycles.

Download and import into R, the Excel file which contains the monthly number of
newly registered motorcycles in Malaysia from Jan 2004 to March 2016. When im-
porting the data into R, please also add the following argument header = FALSE in
the read.csv() function. In this way, the first row of the data set will NOT be
regarded as headings/labels.

Question 1

(a) Produce a plot of the data.

(b) Divide the data set into a training set (Jan 2004 to Dec 2014) and test set (Jan 2015
to March 2016).

(c) Using the training set data, produce forecasts for the test-set period using (i) the Holt-
Winters method with additive seasonality and (ii) the Holt-Winters method with
multiplicative seasonality.

(d) Using a suitable metric, determine which of the two forecasting methods from Part (c)
you would use to forecast this data set.

(e) Plot the full data set along with the test-set forecasts produced by the 2 Holt-Winters
methods from Part (c). Omit the plotting of the prediction intervals by setting the
argument PI = F.

Instructions
Question 1

CS: assignmentchef QQ: 1823890830 Email: [email protected]