[SOLVED] 代写代考 ETW3420 Principles of Forecasting and Applications

ETW3420 Principles of Forecasting and Applications

Principles of Forecasting and Applications

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Topic 5 Post-Tutorial Activity

Instructions

• Perform and complete the following tasks before answering the Quiz questions on

• In this activity, you will examine Malaysia’s number of newly registered motorcycles.

• Download and import into R, the Excel file which contains the monthly number of
newly registered motorcycles in Malaysia from Jan 2004 to March 2016. When im-
porting the data into R, please also add the following argument header = FALSE in
the read.csv() function. In this way, the first row of the data set will NOT be
regarded as headings/labels.

Question 1

(a) Produce a plot of the data.

(b) Divide the data set into a training set (Jan 2004 to Dec 2014) and test set (Jan 2015
to March 2016).

(c) Using the training set data, produce forecasts for the test-set period using (i) the Holt-
Winters’ method with additive seasonality and (ii) the Holt-Winters’ method with
multiplicative seasonality.

(d) Using a suitable metric, determine which of the two forecasting methods from Part (c)
you would use to forecast this data set.

(e) Plot the full data set along with the test-set forecasts produced by the 2 Holt-Winters
methods from Part (c). Omit the plotting of the prediction intervals by setting the
argument PI = F.

Instructions
Question 1

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